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Decision Making Under UncertaintyTo save on gasoline expenses, Edith and Mathew agreed to carpool together for traveling to and from work. Edith preferred to travel on I-20 highway as it was usually the fastest, taking 25 minutes in the absence of traffic delays.Mathew pointed out that traffic jams on the highway can lead to long delays making the trip 45 minutes. He preferred to travel along Shea Boulevard, which was longer (35 minutes), but rarely had traffic jams. Edith agreedthat in case of traffic jams, Shea Boulevard was a reasonable alternative.
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Neither of them knows the state of thehighway ahead of time.After driving to work on the I-20 highway for 1 month (20 workdays), they found the highway to be jammed 3times. Assuming that this month is a good representation of all months ahead, should Edith and Mathew continue touse the highway for traveling to work?How would you conclusion change for the winter months, if bad weather makes it likely for traffic jams on thehighway to increase to 6 days per month?How would your conclusion change if Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the status of thehighway traffic prior to their drive each morning, thus reducing the probability of them getting into a jam down toonly 1day per month (where on this day, the app showed no traffic jam, but a jam developed in the meantime as theywere driving along the highway).
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Neither of them knows the state of thehighway ahead of time.After driving to work on the I-20 highway for 1 month (20 workdays), they found the highway to be jammed 3times. Assuming that this month is a good representation of all months ahead, should Edith and Mathew continue touse the highway for traveling to work?How would you conclusion change for the winter months, if bad weather makes it likely for traffic jams on thehighway to increase to 6 days per month?How would your conclusion change if Mathew purchased a new smart-phone app that could show the status of thehighway traffic prior to their drive each morning, thus reducing the probability of them getting into a jam down toonly 1day per month (where on this day, the app showed no traffic jam, but a jam developed in the meantime as theywere driving along the highway).
bus 640